Senate Special Election: Estimates Changed With Exit Poll

Two days ago, we made predictions for who will be elected in the Senate Special Election, which will end in around an hour, and we will enter the counting cycle.

Once the voting started within DemocracyCraft, we published an exit poll, which could be taken by players, anonymously, so that we can estimate the winners.

Our predictions involved mesemi, GraprielJuice and vvirtue_ as the top 3 favorites. Based on the exit poll answers, our predictions weren’t far from the poll results, though the estimates showed surprises.

*NOTE #1: On our exit poll, first preference votes were NOT counted, as the website we used to create the poll didn’t support it. So, this remains a very vague estimate, and may be far from the elected person, which will be announced in a few hours from now.

**NOTE #2: Not every player, who voted in-game, voted on our exit poll as well. This means that the results may vary either a bit, or a lot.

***NOTE #3: Because the sample of votes was so minimal, plus the fact that first preference votes aren’t counted, it’s almost impossible to have a clear winner. That’s why some spots are tied between more than one candidate. That doesn’t mean, however, that the candidate placed above, won or got a better place in the ranking. The website showed the results, and happened to place X player above Y player.

As of now, the 15 players have voted on our exit poll, which means a total of 75 votes. Here’s how these votes were distributed:

RANKINGCANDIDATEPERCENTAGE (%)# OF VOTES
1mesemi (IND)16%12
2GraprielJuice (WPR)16%12
3ItsStormCraft (TP)15%~11 (11.25)
4pricelessAgrari (IND)13%~10 (9.75)
5Gribble19 (IND)13%~10 (9.75)
6vvirtue_ (IND)12%9
7Dodrio (IND)9%~7 (6.75)
8Baja_Blast64 (IND)5%~4 (3.75)

Although the votes weren’t many, and first preference votes weren’t counted, this gives us a good estimate for what to expect. This exit poll… flips our predictions around, and it tells us that it will be a close race between mesemi and GraprielJuice, placing vvirtue_ in 6th (!) place.

I’ll say it again, in case someone forgot: These results are may vary A LOT from the actual Senate Special Election results, which will be announced in a few hours. In fact, since the sample of votes is so minimal, the results may be completely different.

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